Articles
All articles published on the platform, filterable by sport, searchable by keyword, and sortable by date. New posts are automatically indexed from frontmatter.
Regression to the Mean Will Break Your Heart
The single most important — and most ignored — principle in sports analysis. It explains why your team's amazing first half faded and why that breakout player fell off a cliff.
Is Clutch Hitting Real? (Spoiler: No)
Clutch hitting — the sports media's favorite imaginary friend. Here's what 40 years of data actually say about performing in 'big moments.'
Quarterback Wins Are Not a Stat
Nothing reveals the intellectual bankruptcy of a football argument faster than citing a QB's win-loss record. It's a team stat dressed in individual clothing.
Triple-Doubles Don't Mean What You Think
Few things generate more uncritical reverence than the triple-double. It's 80% usage rate and 20% your center letting you grab uncontested rebounds.
The Myth of the Hot Hand — Revisited
For thirty years, the hot hand was the textbook example of cognitive bias. Then economists found the textbook was wrong. Oops.
Plus-Minus: Hockey's Worst Beloved Stat
Of all the meaningless statistics fans cling to like a security blanket, hockey's plus-minus might be the most aggressively useless.
Why RBIs Are a Terrible Stat
RBIs are the participation trophies of baseball stats — they technically measure something, and citing them unironically tells everyone exactly how seriously to take your analysis.
The Save Rule Is Broken
For over fifty years, managers have deployed their most dominant relievers in the exact wrong situations because a number on a stat sheet told them to.
Do NFL Teams Run Too Much?
Short answer: yes. Long answer: yes, and the data has been screaming this for a decade while offensive coordinators stuff their fingers in their ears.