The Save Rule Is Broken
January 10, 2026 · MLB · 5 min read
The save statistic has been an official part of baseball since 1969, which means for over fifty years, Major League managers have been strategically deploying their most dominant relievers in the exact wrong situations because a number on a stat sheet told them to. It's as if hospitals assigned their best surgeons exclusively to sprained ankles because someone invented an "Ankle Saves" metric in the 1970s and nobody thought to question it. Welcome to baseball's dumbest self-inflicted wound.
The save has been an official MLB statistic since 1969, and it has been distorting bullpen management ever since.
What Counts as a Save
To earn a save, a pitcher must:
- Finish the game for the winning team
- Not be the winning pitcher
- Meet one of three conditions: enter with a lead of 3 or fewer runs and pitch at least one inning, enter with the tying run on base/at bat/on deck, or pitch the final three innings
That third condition means a pitcher can earn a save while entering a game with a 7-1 lead — hardly a high-pressure situation.
The Distortion
Because saves are tied to closer compensation and All-Star selections, managers have been trained to deploy their best reliever exclusively in save situations. This creates absurd outcomes:
- A team's best reliever sits in the bullpen during a tie game in the 8th inning
- That same reliever enters in the 9th with a 3-run lead — a much lower-leverage situation
- The team's third-best reliever pitches in the highest-pressure moment because it's not a "save situation"
What the Data Shows
Leverage Index (LI) measures the pressure of a game situation. A typical 9th-inning save situation has an average LI around 1.8. But plenty of non-save situations — tie games, 8th innings with runners on — routinely exceed LI of 3.0 or higher.
Teams that deploy relievers by leverage rather than by save situations gain a measurable edge. Research from The Book (Tango, Lichtman, Dolphin) estimated this edge at roughly 1-2 additional wins per season.
Why It Persists
The save persists because:
- Familiarity — Fans, broadcasters, and journalists understand it
- Contracts — Closers are paid based on save totals
- Fantasy sports — Saves remain a standard fantasy category, creating demand for "closers"
- Risk aversion — Managers fear criticism more than they value optimization
The Skeptic's Take
The save isn't just a bad stat — it actively makes baseball worse by incentivizing suboptimal bullpen deployment. Until the incentive structure changes, teams will continue using their best weapons at the wrong time.
Related: Why RBIs Are a Terrible Stat