NFL Coverage
Advanced football analytics beyond the box score. We measure what matters — efficiency, expected points, and play-level data — not what fits a broadcast narrative.
Latest NFL Articles
The Myth of Momentum
Why "getting hot at the right time" is mostly noise.
Key Concepts
EPA (Expected Points Added)
The gold standard for measuring play-level value. Each play is evaluated based on how much it changed the team's expected scoring outcome.
CPOE (Completion % Over Expected)
Raw completion percentage is nearly useless because it doesn't account for throw difficulty. CPOE adjusts for depth, pressure, and receiver separation.
Success Rate
The percentage of plays that gain "enough" yards — typically 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd/4th.
The Skeptic's NFL Rules
- Ignore quarterback W-L records. They're a team stat.
- Don't trust small playoff samples. A 4-game hot streak doesn't redefine a player.
- Running back value is real but limited. The position matters less than you think in the passing era.
- Draft capital ≠ player quality. Evaluate picks on outcome, not where they were selected.