Hot Takes Debunked
The sports media runs on hot takes. We run them through the data shredder.
Latest Debunks
"This team just knows how to win close games"
The Claim: Team X has a 25-10 record in one-run games, proving they have a winning mentality.
The Reality: Performance in one-run games is essentially a coin flip. Year-to-year correlation of one-run game winning percentage is near zero. Teams that dominate in close games one year almost always regress the next.
The Data: From 2000-2024, the correlation between a team's one-run record in consecutive seasons is r = 0.04. That's basically random.
"He's a winner — look at his record"
The Claim: This quarterback has a 45-12 record as a starter, making him elite.
The Reality: Quarterback win-loss records are a team stat. The defense, special teams, running game, and coaching all contribute. Some QBs with mediocre stats have great records because of elite defenses.
The Data: The correlation between QB EPA/play and win percentage is only about r = 0.55. That means nearly half the variance in wins comes from non-QB factors.
"Momentum is real in the playoffs"
The Claim: Teams that get hot heading into the playoffs are more dangerous.
The Reality: September performance has almost no predictive value for October success. Playoff baseball, in particular, is so small-sample that regular-season momentum is essentially meaningless.
Have a hot take you want us to check? Send it our way.