Advanced Metrics ​

A guide to the advanced stats we use throughout Sports Skeptic. If you've ever seen an acronym on this platform and wondered what it means, this is your starting point.

Baseball ​

Offense ​

• WAR — Wins Above Replacement. Estimates total value vs. a replacement-level player.
• wRC+ — Weighted Runs Created Plus. 100 is league average; 150 means 50% better than average.
• wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average. Like OBP but weights each outcome by actual run value.
• xwOBA — Expected wOBA based on exit velocity and launch angle, stripping out luck.

Pitching ​

• FIP — Fielding Independent Pitching. What ERA would be if the pitcher had average defense.
• xFIP — Expected FIP. Normalizes home run rate to league average.
• SIERA — Skill-Interactive ERA. Accounts for batted ball types.

Defense ​

• OAA — Outs Above Average. Measures range and plays made vs. expected.
• DRS — Defensive Runs Saved. Similar concept, different methodology.

Football ​

• EPA — Expected Points Added. How much each play changes a team's expected score.
• CPOE — Completion Percentage Over Expected. Accounts for depth, pressure, receiver separation.
• DVOA — Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Compares performance on every play to baseline.

Basketball ​

• BPM — Box Plus-Minus. Estimates contribution from box score data.
• RAPTOR — Robust Algorithm using Player Tracking and On/Off Ratings.
• True Shooting % — Accounts for 2s, 3s, and free throws in a single efficiency number.

Hockey ​

• xG — Expected Goals. Probability-weighted shot quality model.
• GAR — Goals Above Replacement. Total value in goal terms.
• CF% — Corsi For Percentage. Shot attempt differential as a proxy for possession.